05.5.1 · Skill in Delivery management
Estimation
Forecasting how long work will take, with honest uncertainty.
Estimates are forecasts, not promises. Ranges and confidence levels are more honest than single numbers. Breaking work down and comparing with past work improves them, and some teams forecast from throughput instead.
Resources
3- articleStart hereWhen can I start telling customers when work will be done? ↗ProKanban · 5 min
Answering "when will it be done" with a range and a confidence level, not a single date.
- bookStart hereSet boundaries (Shape Up, chapter 3) ↗Ryan Singer (Basecamp) · 14 min
Decide how much a problem is worth before designing the solution, then shape the solution to fit.
- articleGo deeperAccurate forecasting without estimation ↗Xebia · 2017 · 8 min
Forecasting delivery from past throughput with a Monte Carlo simulation instead of estimating every task.
Tools
none yetTools for this topic are being researched.